Women’s Gold Cup Quarterfinals preview and predictions
San Diego Wave’s Abby Dahlkemper defends star Mexico forward Jacqueline Ovalle in 2-0 loss. Credit: Concacaf.com
The first edition of the Women’s Gold Cup has had it all. Dominance, surprises and upsets occurred and featured exciting games across the three groups. Whether it be Canada’s dominance, Mexico taking first over USA in the group stage or Cinderella story Puerto Rico who just managed to get into the tournament, and win a match only to lose out on the next round through a 50/50 drawing.
The knockout rounds begin featuring the top eight teams from the group stages as follows: Canada, Brazil, Mexico, USA, Colombia, Paraguay, Argentina and Costa Rica.
The final spot was highly contested between Puerto Rico and Costa Rica who each had an equal number of points, goal differential, goals scored and yellow cards leaving every tiebreaker between the two completely even.s The final tiebreaker was a drawing ssby Concacaf officials between the two teams which Costa Rica won.
All matches can be found on ESPN Deportes on Paramount+ and the first matches will take place at BMO stadium in Los Angeles, California, on Saturday, March 2, with Canada vs. Costa Rica first at 4 p.m. and Brazil vs. Argentina at 7:15 p.m. second.
Canada v Costa Rica
Canada has outclassed their competition in the group as they lead the tournament in goals scored and have no goals allowed, and while Costa Rica beat El Salvador 2-0, they face a very tough task in stopping Canada’s many great forwards like Adriana Leon and Jordyn Huitema. Canada and Costa Rica already played in their final group stage match on February 28, in a 3-0 win for Canada.
Prediction Canada 2, Costa Rica 1
Both teams will likely be rightfully tired after only getting two days rest from their last match, so I wouldn’t expect Canada to score as much as they did in the group stage but I expect them to beat Costa Rica. The one goal from Costa Rica may come off an assist by midfielder Raquel Rodriguez who has been a fun player to follow in the NWSL with an energetic latin style, but I have not seen enough offensively out of the forwards to win.
Brazil v Argentina
Brazil and Argentina face each other in the night match of the doubleheader in one of South America’s biggest rivalry matches. Brazil won all their matches in the group stage at Snapdragon Stadium in dominant fashion showcasing the ‘Joga Bonito’ to San Diego and Argentina tied Mexico in their first match plus beat Dominican Republic to advance to the next round. tied Mexico in their first match.
Argentina’s best performance came against Mexico to kickoff the tournament and went according to plan for head coach Germán Portanova. A simple 4-4-2 limited space for Mexico to manage a scoreless draw, but they had created very few offensive chances to threaten their opposition.
Prediction: Brazil 2, Argentina 0
Argentina’s defense worked against Mexico, but the lack of offensive chances against higher quality opponents leaves them in a tough position so I doubt Brazil will suffer the same fate. At the same time Brazil’s makeup is much more comparable to that of the USWNT with midfielders who can make efficient passes and put the ball into dangerous positions in the box for strikers that can be clinical.
Mexico v Paraguay
The next day on Sunday, at BMO Stadium at the same times, third seed Mexico will face six seed Paraguay and later four seed USA will challenge five seed Colombia.
Mexico began group play with a lackluster performance against Argentina as they could not take advantage of many scoring chances. However, they came back much stronger with an 8-0 rout of Dominican Republic in their next match in which seven different players scored. Then they shocked everyone as they were the first team to beat the U.S. on American soil for the first time since 2000.
Paraguay made it in with two wins, the second of which came on Wednesday after a resilient win after down 2-1 in the 83rd minute only to win 3-2 thanks to a penalty and stoppage time goal.
Prediction: Mexico 2, Paraguay 0
Some may believe the cliche that Mexico has already won their personal championship by dominating their neighboring rival USA 2-0, but speaking in the mixed zone with players following the match there was a calmness to the players one wouldn't expect after one of their biggest victories in program history. They were happy with the win, but still calm and truly believed in their preparation with head coach Pedro Lopez that could take them even further in the tournament.
So long as Mexico maintains their high pressing identity on the attacking side of the ball with Jacqeline Ovalle leading the charge Paraguay faces a very difficult task ahead of them.
USA V Colombia
The USWNT face a much tougher test when they take on Colombia in what may be the most evenly matched game of the tournament. Colombia was solid in their two victories displaying good team chemistry and even looked strong in defeat playing much better in the second half of their match in a 1-0 defeat against Brazil in the group stage.
The two recently faced each other in a friendly October, 2023, where Colombia held their own for the first half limiting the USA attack, but did not manage to score as they were without their star player, Linda Caicedo, who was out with an injury. The USA’s offense only came to life when USA’s young stars Mia Fishel and Jaedyn Shaw came onto the pitch and each scored a goal.
Fishel was set to be a starting striker for the U.S., but tore her ACL in practice the day before the first match of the group stage. She was replaced by San Diego Wave’s Alex Morgan who has been crucial to the USWNT in the past, but neither she nor Sophia Smith could score against Colombia in their last meeting.
The most exciting part of this match could be the clash between Colombia’s talented forward Linda Caicedo and USA star center back Naomi Girma. These two titans of the Women’s game at the moment are rightfully considered among the best young players in the world and may get to face off for the first time.
Prediction: USA 2, Colombia 1 (USA win in extra time)
The U.S. will likely mimic Brazil’s strategy for Colombia in which they focus defensively on Caicedo limiting her opportunities, which I believe should work. There were times in the group stage where Caicedo made amazing passes that could develop into good plays, but it was stymied by weaker play from her teammates.
